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Stary 23-03-2008, 03:32
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Post Dollar lower against euro - how long?

Dollar Registers Biggest Weekly Decline This Year Against Euro
Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar posted its biggest weekly loss this year against the euro as a decline in New York manufacturing and tumbling consumer confidence added to concern that the U.S. economy is headed for a recession.
...European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said today the 15-nation region still has ``ongoing growth.'' Two- year U.S. Treasury notes yield 119 basis points less than similar-maturity German government debt, up from 116 basis points a week ago...
...The U.S. currency fell to $1.4677 per euro at 4:07 p.m. in New York, from $1.4643 yesterday and touched the weakest since Feb. 5. Its 1.2 percent drop this week is the biggest since December. The dollar traded at 107.82 yen, from 107.87, for a gain this week of 0.5 percent...
...The earlier drop in stocks helped spark increased volatility, which diminishes investors' appetite for the carry- trade strategy. In these bets, investors borrow where rates are low and buy assets were yields are higher, such as South Africa, where the benchmark is 11 percent. Increased volatility threatens to erode profits from rate differentials...
The U.S. data ``was much softer than expected and that's fostered a bit of risk aversion,'' said Daragh Maher, a senior currency strategist in London at Calyon, the investment-banking arm of Credit Agricole SA, France's second-largest bank by assets. ``The impact has been felt by the funding currencies like the yen.''
Dollar Falls as Housing Reports May Bolster Case for Fed Cuts
Feb. 19 (Bloomberg)The dollar fell to $1.4742 per euro, the lowest since Feb. 5,
and traded at $1.4726 as of 8:45 a.m. in London,
from $1.4658 in New York yesterday.
U.S. Dollar Falls Below 100 Yen; at 1995 Levels
Mar. 13(NPR)The euro exceeded $1.56 for the first time, and the dollar fell as low as 99.75 yen, before bouncing back to 100.16 yen. It was the first time the U.S. currency has traded below 100 yen since November 1995...
Dollar Falls on Speculation Housing Slump to Swell
Mar. 19 (Bloomberg) The dollar fell against the euro, erasing most of yesterday's gains, on speculation the worst U.S. housing slump in a quarter of a century will swell credit-market losses.
The currency weakened against the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc after Bank of America Corp. predicted the Federal Reserve will lower its target rate by another 75 basis points this year following a reduction to 2.25 percent yesterday. Reports this week on U.S. mortgage demand and manufacturing will probably show the economy is slowing.
...The U.S. economy is facing the worst financial crisis in almost 80 years and interest-rate cuts will do little to cure the problem, Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel-prize winning economist, said...
...``We're approaching a dollar low, but we probably haven't seen it yet,'' said Adrian Schmidt, senior currency strategist in London at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, the fourth-biggest currency trader. ``The market still expects the Fed to cut aggressively,''he said, adding that the U.S. currency may fall to as low as $1.65 before rebounding later this year...
...``There are rumors doing the rounds on various financial institutions being in trouble,'' said Adam Cole, the London-based head of currency strategy at Royal Bank of Canada, the nation's biggest lender. ``European and U.K. banks are rumored to be in trouble.''...
The securities firm is likely to join Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in reassuring investors it has ample cash reserves. Morgan Stanley reported the first loss in its history last quarter.
``Should their earnings fall short of analysts' estimates, this may again trigger stock-market declines and yen appreciation,'' Tohru Sasaki and Junya Tanase, currency strategists in Tokyo at JPMorgan Chase & Co., the third-largest U.S. bank, wrote in a research note today.
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